* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/20/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 73 78 81 80 73 67 62 60 62 65 66 68 69 70 V (KT) LAND 55 62 68 73 78 81 80 73 67 62 60 62 65 66 68 69 70 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 70 76 80 84 85 85 84 83 83 84 85 84 80 77 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 8 11 14 11 10 14 12 8 5 8 9 9 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -5 -7 -6 -5 0 -4 -5 0 3 -1 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 169 180 207 196 159 160 161 195 255 258 279 226 223 206 206 197 184 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 163 165 164 165 165 167 167 166 164 160 154 151 151 149 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 10 9 10 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 68 63 59 56 55 54 52 50 49 47 48 46 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 16 16 13 11 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 24 21 34 40 39 53 34 39 29 27 9 5 20 30 21 19 14 200 MB DIV 70 75 65 73 83 65 59 53 13 17 22 10 12 -14 -28 -13 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 1 0 1 -1 3 1 6 4 4 LAND (KM) 248 224 204 189 174 150 125 123 145 151 214 308 413 523 693 896 1030 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.5 16.3 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.0 102.1 102.1 102.2 102.1 102.0 102.1 102.5 103.2 104.1 105.4 106.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 4 5 7 7 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 23 24 25 26 28 27 26 26 28 32 28 26 28 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -8. -10. -11. -10. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 25. 18. 12. 7. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.2 101.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/20/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.74 16.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 14.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.48 8.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.59 10.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 -11.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 14.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.73 8.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.68 1.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 77% is 6.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 63% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 47.2% 76.9% 68.8% 62.2% 41.6% 62.7% 51.3% 46.4% Logistic: 31.5% 50.4% 42.3% 30.6% 40.9% 21.9% 17.0% 3.1% Bayesian: 34.2% 69.2% 61.2% 53.0% 42.1% 38.0% 14.8% 0.0% Consensus: 37.6% 65.5% 57.4% 48.6% 41.5% 40.9% 27.7% 16.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/20/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##