* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/20/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 50 58 64 67 64 62 60 62 65 71 75 78 81 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 50 58 64 67 64 62 60 62 65 71 75 78 81 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 46 49 56 63 66 66 65 64 64 66 69 74 77 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 9 6 7 11 11 14 15 14 21 15 12 8 8 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 -7 -7 -3 1 1 -3 0 2 0 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 94 125 141 147 197 185 183 187 181 211 243 236 213 184 187 285 355 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.1 29.7 29.1 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 161 163 164 165 166 166 165 167 169 165 161 155 151 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 10 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 80 77 74 71 68 63 60 56 58 58 57 52 49 46 43 42 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 12 13 14 11 11 11 13 14 17 20 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 36 36 25 26 34 39 47 23 30 25 29 16 17 32 46 60 60 200 MB DIV 68 51 47 33 33 62 88 66 54 26 24 34 14 21 6 13 -56 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 3 -1 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 304 281 259 240 222 183 150 116 99 93 89 120 208 330 454 617 787 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.3 101.6 101.9 102.1 102.2 102.1 102.0 102.0 102.2 102.7 103.6 104.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 21 21 22 25 26 28 27 25 25 29 30 28 23 25 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 41. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. -1. -0. 0. 3. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 23. 29. 32. 29. 27. 25. 27. 30. 36. 40. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.3 101.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/20/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.91 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.51 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.84 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.68 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 36.1% 24.9% 20.4% 14.1% 24.7% 39.7% 57.8% Logistic: 10.9% 44.0% 30.6% 20.4% 19.2% 31.8% 37.0% 12.5% Bayesian: 1.8% 49.4% 21.2% 7.5% 4.5% 31.0% 20.9% 4.1% Consensus: 9.1% 43.2% 25.6% 16.1% 12.6% 29.2% 32.5% 24.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/20/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##