* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/17/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 20 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 20 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 20 23 26 25 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 242 242 245 252 253 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.4 24.4 25.0 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 113 109 105 105 111 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 40 35 33 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -20 -34 -40 -41 -33 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -17 -25 -27 -21 -20 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 4 7 5 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1092 1142 1194 1253 1312 1411 1520 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.7 18.5 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.6 121.3 121.9 122.6 123.2 124.4 125.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 17. 15. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -24. -26. -28. -28. -29. -29. -30. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.7 120.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/17/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/17/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##