* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/16/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 24 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 24 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 10 14 19 22 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 180 259 280 263 248 248 243 243 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.0 24.7 24.7 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 125 121 117 111 107 107 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 44 44 44 41 34 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 -18 -20 -20 -28 -34 -29 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -2 0 -5 1 -17 -6 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 4 4 6 3 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 970 987 1009 1033 1060 1115 1198 1287 1378 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.0 18.7 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.3 119.0 119.6 120.2 121.2 122.1 122.9 123.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 15. 14. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -20. -21. -22. -23. -23. -22. -21. -21. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 117.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/16/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.63 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.60 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.16 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 -3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.49 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.66 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 12.2% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.3% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/16/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##