* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/15/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 29 27 25 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 29 27 25 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 28 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 8 3 4 6 11 19 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 143 184 199 235 238 244 253 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 25.8 24.8 24.6 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 135 133 120 109 106 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 45 45 45 45 41 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 4 -3 -3 1 0 -11 -23 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 10 13 7 21 16 7 -32 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 5 6 6 6 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 908 913 922 918 921 953 1008 1073 1126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.2 19.7 19.9 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.4 116.9 117.5 118.1 119.3 120.4 121.3 122.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 7 7 9 9 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -19. -23. -23. -24. -24. -23. -22. -20. -19. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.9 115.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.61 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.18 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.93 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 17.9% 13.9% 10.0% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.1% 4.7% 3.4% 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##