* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/14/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 35 33 31 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 36 35 33 31 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 38 35 32 29 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 14 7 3 6 9 17 21 24 23 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -7 -3 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 107 126 135 194 279 255 240 251 250 253 248 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.3 26.7 26.1 25.3 24.4 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 140 137 136 129 122 113 104 98 99 101 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 48 46 45 43 38 35 32 27 24 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 37 27 19 12 6 5 -7 -15 -15 -22 -16 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 14 20 9 0 10 11 0 -18 -26 -10 -27 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 1 3 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1032 988 947 936 930 908 906 904 923 950 977 1016 1053 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.5 19.3 20.0 20.5 20.8 20.8 20.5 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.0 116.1 116.5 116.9 117.9 118.8 119.4 120.0 120.5 120.9 121.1 121.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 18 11 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -22. -27. -32. -36. -35. -34. -34. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.4 115.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/14/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.68 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.33 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 -3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.04 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.65 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 16.5% 13.7% 10.4% 0.0% 14.1% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.7% 4.6% 3.5% 0.0% 4.7% 4.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/14/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##