* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP152013 10/13/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 58 55 45 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 58 55 45 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 59 59 57 52 42 33 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 13 16 17 24 27 29 31 37 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 5 4 2 0 2 2 -1 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 219 228 233 234 238 252 242 241 244 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.3 25.7 24.9 24.3 23.8 23.8 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 127 120 111 105 98 97 99 98 96 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 65 60 51 43 39 38 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 13 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 35 40 38 32 25 22 12 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 40 66 49 38 28 19 13 15 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 13 12 12 15 11 12 8 14 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 544 482 441 396 322 196 130 92 78 60 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.2 23.5 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.5 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.0 113.4 113.6 113.7 113.6 113.4 113.2 113.0 112.7 112.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 5 3 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -10. -16. -23. -25. -27. -29. -31. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -10. -17. -20. -21. -20. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. -0. -10. -21. -32. -40. -46. -53. -56. -58. -63. -66. -71. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.6 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152013 OCTAVE 10/13/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 2.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 8.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152013 OCTAVE 10/13/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##