* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP152013 10/13/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 52 51 46 38 31 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 52 51 46 38 31 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 50 52 52 51 44 35 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 9 14 16 19 28 29 30 32 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 4 3 4 1 2 3 2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 210 206 215 229 222 243 243 242 231 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.0 26.2 25.6 24.8 24.1 23.6 23.5 23.7 23.3 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 134 126 119 110 102 96 94 96 92 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 3 3 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 73 69 64 61 52 45 43 42 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 14 10 8 6 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 31 34 38 37 42 19 17 17 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 68 50 76 57 23 22 18 18 33 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 11 11 10 13 12 11 6 9 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 597 524 472 433 403 275 195 139 101 100 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.8 19.7 20.6 21.4 22.8 23.7 24.4 24.9 25.5 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.4 113.0 113.4 113.7 113.9 113.8 113.6 113.3 113.1 112.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 6 4 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 14 CX,CY: -7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -8. -14. -21. -22. -23. -25. -26. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -12. -15. -15. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 6. 1. -7. -14. -23. -29. -35. -37. -39. -42. -45. -50. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.8 111.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152013 OCTAVE 10/13/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.6% 23.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.8% 8.4% 5.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.6% 10.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152013 OCTAVE 10/13/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##