* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/09/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 15 16 17 21 24 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 2 1 -2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 268 252 258 272 256 270 312 333 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 26.1 26.5 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 125 124 122 119 122 126 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 47 47 45 39 40 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 5 8 11 3 10 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -35 -21 -30 -26 -29 -21 -45 -26 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1826 1861 1897 1936 1975 2054 2132 2227 2313 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.1 15.7 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.2 128.7 129.2 129.6 130.0 130.8 131.4 132.2 132.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -12. -18. -24. -27. -30. -31. -33. -32. -31. -28. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 128.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/09/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.01 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/09/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##