* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/07/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 64 64 61 58 52 44 37 31 26 23 21 20 19 17 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 64 64 61 58 52 44 37 31 26 23 21 20 19 17 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 63 65 65 62 57 51 43 36 31 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 5 9 6 9 11 13 19 23 25 22 28 28 26 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 0 -5 -1 0 -1 0 3 4 1 -2 1 5 4 SHEAR DIR 46 52 34 5 2 265 280 257 272 291 307 296 303 289 271 255 258 SST (C) 27.6 26.9 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.0 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 133 127 126 128 130 127 125 124 122 119 120 124 126 123 124 125 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 53 54 56 54 56 53 49 43 41 40 39 37 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 15 15 14 12 11 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 18 7 8 5 8 22 8 8 2 9 9 15 6 0 -12 200 MB DIV 33 33 19 19 11 -15 -3 7 4 -22 -22 -49 -41 -34 -9 -9 -22 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 -2 1 1 2 3 4 5 3 4 3 5 4 4 LAND (KM) 1626 1684 1748 1800 1854 1905 1927 1935 1959 1983 2033 2099 2192 2207 2040 1853 1676 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.0 124.1 125.2 126.1 127.0 128.3 129.0 129.3 129.7 130.1 130.8 131.6 132.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 5 3 2 2 3 3 5 6 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 3 0 0 1 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. -3. -11. -18. -24. -29. -32. -34. -35. -36. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.2 123.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/07/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 372.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.1% 32.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 4.8% 4.9% 2.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.9% 12.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/07/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##