* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 35 36 38 36 30 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 35 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 29 26 26 26 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 21 22 26 32 49 51 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 -1 -5 0 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 278 258 260 250 217 205 206 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.5 27.6 27.8 24.1 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 143 135 130 133 136 101 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 123 121 115 112 117 120 90 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.8 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 6 2 0 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 48 50 51 54 50 46 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -21 -23 -12 2 35 99 113 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 43 51 48 33 46 34 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 4 10 3 -1 -8 -23 -72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 188 136 85 15 -4 -25 -285 -304 -278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.1 28.5 29.0 29.5 30.9 32.8 34.9 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.6 91.5 91.3 90.7 90.2 88.2 85.4 82.5 79.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 7 9 13 15 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 23 21 16 12 15 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -4. -14. -24. -31. -39. -44. -49. -56. -61. -63. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 1. -5. -11. -15. -20. -22. -25. -29. -32. -34. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.6 91.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.86 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.56 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.46 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 9.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/05/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 35 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 28 27 25 24 24 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 21 20 18 17 17 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT