* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/04/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 43 45 49 48 47 46 45 44 41 38 36 33 32 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 43 41 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 41 40 40 34 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 27 28 24 27 33 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 0 -4 -1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 260 270 276 273 260 236 229 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.1 27.6 27.1 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 151 148 138 133 127 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 130 129 127 120 117 112 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 10 4 4 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 45 43 43 47 50 52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 10 10 10 11 13 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -67 -101 -84 -40 -17 34 72 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 52 32 40 29 49 58 66 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 13 0 0 8 0 8 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 367 301 237 175 113 -9 -36 -267 -206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.6 28.1 29.2 30.7 32.5 34.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.2 90.4 90.6 90.5 90.4 89.2 87.0 84.2 81.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 10 13 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 38 38 38 34 22 16 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -18. -22. -25. -27. -30. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.8 90.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.03 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/04/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 42 43 41 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 43 41 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 41 39 37 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 34 32 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT