* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 57 59 58 63 66 68 56 45 43 41 39 37 36 34 V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 57 59 58 63 58 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 60 60 61 62 63 38 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 24 23 20 28 21 26 33 48 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 -1 -1 0 -3 0 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 249 256 258 248 264 235 232 213 225 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.0 28.0 24.5 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 160 158 154 149 144 137 138 103 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 143 139 135 128 124 118 120 91 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 3 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 53 52 52 41 45 47 51 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 13 13 15 14 19 21 22 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -22 -47 -67 -57 -100 -24 -4 55 36 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 44 32 16 44 18 68 80 74 46 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 9 11 13 10 19 5 9 7 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 148 251 354 411 330 162 47 -2 -192 -257 -287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.8 24.6 25.4 26.1 27.6 28.9 30.3 32.0 34.0 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.3 88.7 89.2 89.4 89.6 89.4 88.7 87.6 85.7 83.0 80.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 10 13 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 28 34 40 42 34 32 26 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -22. -24. -25. -28. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 3. 5. 7. -1. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 8. 11. 13. 1. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.9 88.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/03/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.12 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.56 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.56 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 15.6% 10.3% 7.8% 4.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 6.0% 2.7% 2.2% 0.8% 2.5% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.3% 4.3% 3.4% 1.7% 3.6% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/03/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/03/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 57 57 59 58 63 58 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 56 55 60 55 36 28 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 53 52 57 52 33 25 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 46 51 46 27 19 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT