* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 39 40 43 46 47 50 50 47 43 42 42 42 43 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 39 40 43 46 47 50 50 47 43 42 42 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 38 39 41 44 48 51 53 51 48 47 47 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 15 9 12 8 13 11 17 15 22 25 29 27 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 5 5 0 -1 -5 -2 -3 -1 0 0 -2 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 329 345 338 326 332 271 257 273 271 250 247 265 254 232 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.2 25.5 25.6 25.4 25.2 23.8 23.2 21.8 21.4 20.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 116 116 115 115 109 110 109 107 97 93 86 84 82 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 97 98 98 97 98 95 96 94 92 84 81 76 75 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.3 -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -56.5 -56.3 -55.8 -55.9 -56.3 -55.8 -56.4 -57.2 -58.1 -57.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 34 37 40 41 43 47 46 43 42 35 30 27 36 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -58 -57 -54 -61 -73 -60 -43 -35 -40 -48 -42 -51 -26 79 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -26 -28 -1 11 -3 6 15 3 10 -6 6 -13 23 25 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 8 8 5 5 6 2 1 1 8 0 -6 -2 2 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2227 2199 2171 2136 2101 2046 2023 2042 2097 2029 1881 1775 1569 1373 1189 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.4 30.3 31.3 32.3 33.2 34.0 35.0 36.2 37.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.7 43.8 43.8 43.6 43.4 42.4 40.6 38.3 35.9 33.4 31.1 29.1 27.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 5 8 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 10. 10. 7. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 28.1 43.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/02/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.49 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.60 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.28 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 10.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.7% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/02/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 39 39 40 43 46 47 50 50 47 43 42 42 42 43 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 38 39 42 45 46 49 49 46 42 41 41 41 42 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 37 40 43 44 47 47 44 40 39 39 39 40 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 34 37 38 41 41 38 34 33 33 33 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT