* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112013 09/30/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 43 47 49 49 50 48 47 45 42 38 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 43 47 49 49 50 48 47 45 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 34 34 34 35 37 39 41 43 44 44 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 13 15 21 16 21 13 14 14 19 19 23 30 34 44 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 4 -2 -1 -4 -5 -6 -4 -6 -5 -5 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 305 302 307 314 319 310 316 294 288 262 270 243 233 219 233 220 220 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 25.7 25.6 25.2 24.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 123 123 127 131 131 130 130 129 129 112 111 108 102 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 106 104 102 103 107 111 110 111 111 110 110 97 97 95 89 84 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 -55.7 -56.1 -56.8 -56.9 -57.5 -57.5 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 7 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 46 45 41 40 42 45 46 47 49 48 45 43 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -87 -71 -54 -42 -35 -19 -17 -30 -46 -57 -71 -74 -69 -60 -51 -27 8 200 MB DIV -24 -17 -5 -15 -40 7 -16 13 0 -7 0 22 15 31 56 51 22 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -8 -7 -1 -4 -1 2 -1 1 -2 -2 -5 0 -17 -49 LAND (KM) 2152 2185 2217 2213 2209 2164 2089 2029 2041 2035 1934 1866 1798 1753 1756 1806 1882 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.6 28.8 29.9 30.9 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.9 46.5 46.2 46.2 46.2 46.6 47.4 48.2 48.5 48.2 47.3 45.8 43.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 1 1 1 3 4 3 5 7 7 9 12 13 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 26 26 26 31 28 16 13 11 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. 19. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 20. 18. 17. 15. 12. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.9 46.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 ELEVEN 09/30/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 6.7% 9.4% Logistic: 3.7% 6.4% 4.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 2.4% 2.9% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 ELEVEN 09/30/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 ELEVEN 09/30/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 43 47 49 49 50 48 47 45 42 38 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 36 39 41 45 47 47 48 46 45 43 40 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 32 35 37 41 43 43 44 42 41 39 36 32 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 28 30 34 36 36 37 35 34 32 29 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT