* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/18/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 62 64 65 66 66 67 67 64 66 70 73 75 78 81 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 62 64 65 66 66 67 67 59 61 65 68 70 73 76 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 61 64 67 71 74 78 81 81 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 6 10 13 7 5 2 5 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -5 -2 0 -3 1 -3 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 240 231 234 251 248 311 157 232 150 180 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.2 30.0 30.5 30.7 30.6 28.8 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 167 164 161 165 167 168 150 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 62 58 54 49 47 45 43 39 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 3 2 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 48 64 55 35 52 15 22 6 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 20 28 14 4 17 -10 -8 0 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 83 68 52 45 42 23 46 70 78 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.1 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.2 25.1 24.8 24.3 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.2 108.3 108.5 108.6 108.8 109.1 109.4 109.8 110.5 111.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 2 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 24 24 24 23 22 25 24 23 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. 18. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. 14. 16. 20. 23. 25. 28. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 23.7 108.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 13.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 9.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.55 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.60 -6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 8.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.78 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.23 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.73 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.3% 55.3% 45.3% 33.7% 19.3% 46.1% 40.8% 0.0% Logistic: 14.2% 22.6% 17.5% 8.2% 8.3% 2.0% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% Consensus: 15.7% 27.0% 21.1% 14.0% 9.2% 16.0% 13.6% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##