* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/18/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 45 50 57 56 57 54 56 59 62 65 70 74 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 45 50 57 45 47 44 46 49 52 56 60 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 41 45 39 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 3 5 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 -4 -2 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 232 210 189 196 229 207 297 138 172 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.0 28.7 27.6 27.0 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 165 167 166 165 161 148 136 130 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 9 10 8 8 7 8 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 64 60 57 48 46 43 42 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 10 8 9 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 38 41 54 66 47 49 11 28 15 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -8 5 25 26 9 2 -4 -9 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 113 120 104 83 73 54 35 11 -19 18 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.4 24.2 24.0 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.1 108.4 108.7 109.1 109.6 110.1 110.6 110.9 111.2 111.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 22 22 22 20 10 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -0. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 15. 20. 27. 26. 27. 24. 26. 29. 32. 35. 40. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.0 107.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 30.0 to 135.0 1.00 9.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.74 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.49 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 22.0% 21.6% 17.6% 0.0% 19.4% 20.4% 39.7% Logistic: 5.7% 22.3% 12.1% 5.3% 3.0% 4.5% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 5.6% 15.1% 11.3% 7.6% 1.0% 7.9% 7.0% 13.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##