* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/17/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 43 45 45 45 45 48 54 59 54 37 29 28 30 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 43 45 45 45 45 48 54 59 54 37 29 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 41 43 44 46 51 59 65 57 46 41 N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 24 14 13 18 18 19 14 20 16 23 32 49 44 54 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -5 1 1 8 23 18 18 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 292 309 305 309 325 314 316 297 265 229 195 192 199 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.3 26.3 24.9 22.8 16.7 14.2 11.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 124 125 126 127 129 128 127 129 120 109 97 78 74 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 107 107 107 107 108 108 108 111 105 99 89 74 71 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.0 -56.2 -56.3 -56.2 -56.0 -55.7 -56.1 -55.8 -55.6 -55.7 -55.4 -54.4 -56.3 -55.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.8 0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 49 49 48 53 54 57 53 48 36 34 43 48 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 15 15 15 14 13 11 13 16 20 22 16 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 22 17 2 6 4 2 18 32 29 92 100 66 -32 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -16 1 8 -3 0 -13 15 23 61 64 77 76 57 62 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 4 0 -1 0 0 5 8 13 21 35 37 35 -34 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2367 2296 2225 2161 2097 1993 1894 1793 1679 1573 1532 1658 1219 697 520 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.9 30.9 32.1 33.8 36.1 39.5 43.9 48.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.3 43.7 44.1 44.4 44.8 45.1 44.9 44.2 42.8 40.6 37.0 32.1 26.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 7 6 6 5 5 6 9 12 18 25 30 31 31 29 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 13 11 10 8 9 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -23. -31. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -7. -3. 2. 3. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 8. 14. 19. 14. -3. -11. -12. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.9 43.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.28 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.57 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.37 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.17 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 12.9% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.0% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/17/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 43 43 45 45 45 45 48 54 59 54 37 29 28 30 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 42 44 44 44 44 47 53 58 53 36 28 27 29 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 40 40 40 40 43 49 54 49 32 24 23 25 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 32 32 32 35 41 46 41 24 16 15 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT