* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/14/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 46 45 45 43 44 46 50 52 55 57 59 61 65 70 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 46 45 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 47 46 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 14 15 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 84 87 99 95 113 121 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.4 26.5 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 144 136 127 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.2 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -50.4 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 9 9 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 79 80 81 81 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 13 10 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 98 103 105 93 109 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 129 146 83 64 110 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -14 -11 -4 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 207 176 133 73 26 -20 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.4 17.9 19.0 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.5 102.6 102.9 103.1 103.9 104.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 20 18 13 6 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -3. -6. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -2. -1. 1. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 20. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 102.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/14/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.31 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.77 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.84 -5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.22 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 23.9% 22.7% 18.5% 12.3% 18.7% 15.6% 12.0% Logistic: 6.9% 27.4% 13.9% 8.1% 4.8% 9.8% 7.6% 1.6% Bayesian: 2.2% 8.7% 5.6% 2.3% 0.8% 1.2% 0.5% 4.6% Consensus: 7.6% 20.0% 14.1% 9.6% 5.9% 9.9% 7.9% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/14/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##