* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/13/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 38 34 31 35 31 35 37 45 53 60 62 62 60 50 41 V (KT) LAND 50 44 38 34 31 35 31 35 37 45 53 60 62 62 60 50 41 V (KT) LGEM 50 44 39 35 33 32 31 31 35 42 51 61 67 69 64 56 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 40 44 47 42 19 18 16 7 4 3 6 10 17 25 48 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -4 -4 0 12 2 1 -3 -3 -4 -1 0 2 14 9 4 SHEAR DIR 241 242 243 249 253 250 252 241 198 181 258 269 248 227 213 224 226 SST (C) 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.5 26.1 26.6 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.1 25.6 24.6 22.8 19.7 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) 104 106 107 108 110 115 119 128 129 132 131 126 112 104 93 81 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 95 96 97 98 102 104 110 110 110 109 106 96 90 82 73 70 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.3 -54.1 -54.8 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.2 -53.5 -53.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.8 -0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 47 44 45 42 39 37 39 42 46 47 49 50 49 48 51 45 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 21 19 18 17 23 20 23 23 26 28 31 32 32 34 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR 31 25 20 17 10 24 16 19 22 11 16 13 16 1 15 31 16 200 MB DIV 2 -8 -8 -1 16 44 -1 34 7 5 39 19 63 50 75 45 11 700-850 TADV 8 6 7 10 10 11 13 6 7 4 3 6 9 14 2 11 -20 LAND (KM) 1541 1654 1766 1885 2003 2239 2298 2119 1951 1793 1621 1452 1295 1206 1266 1441 1514 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.3 25.7 26.2 26.7 27.7 28.8 29.9 31.0 32.1 33.6 35.4 37.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.7 32.8 33.8 34.9 36.0 38.2 40.0 41.6 43.0 44.2 44.7 44.4 43.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 8 11 14 16 18 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 9 7 14 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -6. -7. -8. -13. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -2. -7. -4. -5. -2. 0. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -19. -15. -19. -15. -13. -5. 3. 10. 12. 12. 10. -0. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.8 31.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 409.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 44 38 34 31 35 31 35 37 45 53 60 62 62 60 50 41 18HR AGO 50 49 43 39 36 40 36 40 42 50 58 65 67 67 65 55 46 12HR AGO 50 47 46 42 39 43 39 43 45 53 61 68 70 70 68 58 49 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 41 37 41 43 51 59 66 68 68 66 56 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT