* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/13/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 53 46 41 36 38 36 35 44 45 52 57 59 60 53 44 V (KT) LAND 65 59 53 46 41 36 38 36 35 44 45 52 57 59 60 53 44 V (KT) LGEM 65 59 54 50 46 43 43 42 43 48 53 60 68 72 69 59 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 26 31 39 41 36 19 22 19 14 8 6 8 15 25 31 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 -6 -5 0 9 -1 1 -1 -4 -2 -2 5 6 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 256 245 241 248 249 252 245 234 240 165 169 182 192 182 202 194 197 SST (C) 24.9 24.8 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.6 26.2 26.8 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.1 27.1 25.7 24.6 20.4 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 104 103 104 106 107 111 116 122 128 129 132 125 126 113 105 84 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 93 93 95 97 99 102 106 109 108 110 104 106 97 91 76 70 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -54.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 5 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 53 50 47 45 44 39 36 37 41 43 45 50 52 44 39 34 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 23 20 18 17 21 20 19 23 22 24 27 30 34 32 27 850 MB ENV VOR 35 36 30 23 17 12 31 17 11 8 -4 0 25 79 63 39 47 200 MB DIV 31 10 0 -8 -9 32 37 -13 2 35 6 35 41 47 33 43 42 700-850 TADV 25 20 10 5 6 10 9 13 4 9 5 4 7 8 -11 -29 -28 LAND (KM) 1340 1434 1529 1652 1774 2024 2264 2239 2060 1911 1753 1576 1420 1280 1186 1190 1290 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.7 26.1 27.2 28.3 29.3 30.4 31.4 32.6 34.2 36.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.8 30.6 31.5 32.6 33.8 36.1 38.3 40.2 41.8 43.0 43.9 44.3 43.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 12 10 10 8 7 8 9 11 15 18 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 7 8 15 4 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. -18. -21. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -15. -15. -16. -15. -13. -10. -8. -7. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -8. -12. -14. -9. -12. -10. -6. -3. 1. -2. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -19. -24. -29. -27. -29. -30. -21. -20. -13. -8. -6. -5. -12. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 24.1 29.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 482.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/13/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 59 53 46 41 36 38 36 35 44 45 52 57 59 60 53 44 18HR AGO 65 64 58 51 46 41 43 41 40 49 50 57 62 64 65 58 49 12HR AGO 65 62 61 54 49 44 46 44 43 52 53 60 65 67 68 61 52 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 50 45 47 45 44 53 54 61 66 68 69 62 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT