* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/12/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 67 62 57 45 34 26 26 23 26 31 35 39 44 46 45 V (KT) LAND 75 72 67 62 57 45 34 26 26 23 26 31 35 39 44 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 75 72 67 63 58 50 45 42 42 41 41 44 48 53 58 62 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 23 22 25 28 35 43 35 30 32 27 20 18 17 16 20 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 0 4 -3 -5 0 2 0 0 0 -3 0 1 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 233 250 255 238 232 242 250 254 240 250 253 256 269 262 229 222 N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.6 26.2 26.7 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 105 105 106 108 110 116 120 127 130 132 133 131 130 131 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 94 94 94 95 96 98 102 105 109 110 110 109 108 106 107 105 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.8 -54.7 -54.3 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -55.2 -54.9 -54.2 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 52 48 44 43 40 39 39 37 44 44 46 48 50 52 53 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 29 28 27 26 20 18 17 20 19 21 24 25 27 29 31 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 71 55 59 51 35 16 17 24 22 22 25 21 19 36 42 N/A 200 MB DIV 96 52 13 5 8 -2 8 35 42 2 33 7 13 21 43 20 N/A 700-850 TADV 30 29 23 21 15 3 8 5 5 0 0 6 5 8 6 6 N/A LAND (KM) 1254 1316 1380 1469 1558 1760 1981 2213 2368 2213 2071 1942 1834 1759 1707 1660 1624 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.3 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.9 26.6 27.4 28.1 28.9 29.8 30.7 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.1 29.6 30.2 31.0 31.8 33.7 35.8 38.0 40.0 41.8 43.1 44.1 44.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 8 8 10 14 16 12 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -23. -25. -27. -29. -31. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -17. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -17. -16. -14. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -21. -20. -22. -20. -17. -17. -14. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -18. -30. -41. -49. -49. -52. -49. -44. -40. -36. -31. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.5 29.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.09 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 523.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 72 67 62 57 45 34 26 26 23 26 31 35 39 44 46 45 18HR AGO 75 74 69 64 59 47 36 28 28 25 28 33 37 41 46 48 47 12HR AGO 75 72 71 66 61 49 38 30 30 27 30 35 39 43 48 50 49 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 60 48 37 29 29 26 29 34 38 42 47 49 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT