* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/12/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 69 64 60 50 38 28 27 27 24 28 34 38 42 45 47 V (KT) LAND 75 73 69 64 60 50 38 28 27 27 24 28 34 38 42 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 75 73 68 64 60 52 45 41 40 39 38 40 43 47 52 57 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 22 22 24 29 41 38 30 30 30 27 17 18 16 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 2 1 3 -6 -1 1 4 -1 0 0 -2 0 7 3 SHEAR DIR 230 234 251 254 239 239 248 253 256 247 262 256 258 275 264 233 235 SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.6 25.8 26.4 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 108 105 104 105 105 107 110 112 118 125 124 127 132 131 133 133 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 95 94 94 94 96 99 100 104 109 107 108 110 109 109 109 107 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -55.3 -54.6 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 63 57 52 48 44 41 41 40 40 41 47 44 46 47 49 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 29 28 27 23 19 17 19 20 19 22 25 26 28 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 101 91 71 56 59 48 30 19 25 31 28 33 41 32 32 51 73 200 MB DIV 81 97 52 13 6 -3 -7 0 44 29 12 33 3 8 33 21 22 700-850 TADV 24 28 29 23 21 5 8 4 7 3 0 2 4 4 5 2 5 LAND (KM) 1244 1279 1320 1392 1466 1649 1869 2105 2330 2376 2254 2141 2031 1926 1838 1769 1715 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.3 23.2 23.9 24.5 25.3 25.9 26.4 26.9 27.5 28.1 28.8 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.0 29.3 29.7 30.3 31.0 32.7 34.8 37.1 39.3 41.3 42.9 44.1 44.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 9 10 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 10 7 8 9 10 14 16 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. -26. -28. -30. -31. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -19. -19. -20. -19. -17. -15. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -15. -20. -20. -19. -22. -19. -16. -14. -11. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -15. -25. -37. -47. -48. -48. -51. -47. -41. -37. -33. -30. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.4 29.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 468.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 69 64 60 50 38 28 27 27 24 28 34 38 42 45 47 18HR AGO 75 74 70 65 61 51 39 29 28 28 25 29 35 39 43 46 48 12HR AGO 75 72 71 66 62 52 40 30 29 29 26 30 36 40 44 47 49 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 61 51 39 29 28 28 25 29 35 39 43 46 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT