* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/12/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 32 34 42 48 39 29 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 32 34 42 47 35 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 29 34 36 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 14 11 32 39 56 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -5 -2 3 10 9 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 271 274 285 258 206 206 220 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.7 20.7 15.0 7.9 8.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 132 136 87 75 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 110 112 113 119 80 72 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.8 -0.8 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 49 54 57 56 44 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 10 14 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -89 -82 -65 -29 20 86 66 -20 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 21 11 42 63 79 65 20 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 11 6 14 -6 24 -45 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 811 770 737 662 534 209 62 146 690 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.2 34.0 34.7 36.1 37.5 41.8 46.8 51.8 56.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.4 67.5 67.7 67.3 66.9 64.4 59.7 53.4 47.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 11 14 19 27 31 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 28 33 18 20 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. -0. -13. -20. -28. -35. -42. -52. -58. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 4. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 2. 4. 12. 18. 9. -1. -5. -10. -15. -21. -29. -33. -35. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.2 67.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.85 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.35 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 13.9% 9.4% 7.2% 4.1% 7.3% 4.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 7.5% 4.6% 2.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.1% 4.7% 3.1% 1.5% 2.7% 1.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/12/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 30 32 34 42 47 35 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 42 47 35 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 38 43 31 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 30 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT