* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/12/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 78 77 74 66 56 46 36 28 22 29 31 36 41 46 47 V (KT) LAND 75 78 78 77 74 66 56 46 36 28 22 29 31 36 41 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 77 74 70 63 56 49 44 39 37 38 40 42 46 51 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 14 17 21 23 26 30 34 33 33 21 27 20 19 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 5 1 1 6 2 2 0 0 5 -2 0 -2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 168 205 206 222 228 247 236 244 249 263 247 237 247 266 269 282 271 SST (C) 26.1 25.2 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.2 25.7 25.9 26.3 26.3 26.7 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 115 107 104 104 104 106 111 113 117 117 121 131 132 131 131 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 98 95 95 95 95 100 102 106 105 109 115 113 111 110 112 111 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.6 -54.2 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.7 -0.4 1.0 0.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 68 64 60 54 49 43 43 41 46 47 49 47 47 46 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 30 29 29 26 23 20 18 16 14 20 20 22 24 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 109 102 109 101 82 59 48 44 37 24 22 39 40 44 43 66 77 200 MB DIV 110 114 97 104 57 6 -4 12 25 -10 18 62 17 35 6 34 15 700-850 TADV 6 8 14 20 17 13 3 6 0 3 -1 2 4 4 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1275 1279 1291 1317 1349 1463 1653 1878 2124 2370 2506 2361 2248 2173 2088 1980 1872 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.5 20.4 21.2 22.0 23.3 24.1 24.4 24.8 25.3 25.9 26.6 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.7 30.0 31.1 32.9 35.1 37.5 39.9 42.3 44.5 46.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 8 10 11 11 11 11 9 6 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 5 23 21 25 18 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -23. -25. -26. -28. -30. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -21. -25. -19. -18. -15. -13. -10. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. -1. -9. -19. -29. -39. -47. -53. -46. -44. -39. -34. -29. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.5 28.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 12.0% 5.5% 2.3% 1.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 10.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.2% 4.2% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 5( 15) 3( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 78 77 74 66 56 46 36 28 22 29 31 36 41 46 47 18HR AGO 75 74 74 73 70 62 52 42 32 24 18 25 27 32 37 42 43 12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 67 59 49 39 29 21 15 22 24 29 34 39 40 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 54 44 34 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT