* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/11/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 75 77 75 71 58 46 35 27 23 27 31 36 40 41 V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 75 77 75 71 58 46 35 27 23 27 31 36 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 72 74 74 70 63 55 47 40 36 33 34 36 39 43 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 7 13 15 17 20 27 33 34 31 27 22 24 19 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 1 2 6 6 0 0 3 1 4 1 6 1 4 SHEAR DIR 340 222 169 185 196 227 223 227 241 247 264 256 243 232 229 234 254 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 25.9 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 118 112 106 105 105 111 113 116 117 119 131 133 132 134 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 112 109 104 97 95 95 100 103 106 107 107 117 116 112 113 114 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -54.9 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.6 0.0 1.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 71 74 74 72 68 58 51 45 44 43 46 47 45 45 44 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 27 29 27 27 22 17 14 12 12 15 17 19 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 107 118 116 107 109 96 77 55 37 20 13 16 25 24 14 17 13 200 MB DIV 47 86 114 113 110 86 30 -21 -5 -6 -6 15 22 8 16 7 25 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 4 8 14 10 2 0 -2 -3 0 0 -1 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 1242 1272 1307 1321 1319 1358 1481 1667 1894 2160 2415 2463 2302 2180 2113 2066 1968 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.2 18.0 18.9 19.8 21.5 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.0 24.4 25.1 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 30.1 31.3 33.1 35.3 37.9 40.4 42.8 44.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 8 8 10 11 12 12 11 10 8 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 21 24 23 22 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -8. -15. -21. -25. -26. -22. -19. -16. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 10. 6. -7. -19. -30. -38. -42. -38. -34. -29. -25. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.3 29.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.75 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.81 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.75 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.12 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.61 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 28.5% 23.1% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.3% 23.1% 11.3% 5.5% 2.9% 4.7% 1.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 15.8% 5.0% 1.7% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.7% 18.9% 12.0% 8.8% 1.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/11/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 5( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 73 75 77 75 71 58 46 35 27 23 27 31 36 40 41 18HR AGO 65 64 68 70 72 70 66 53 41 30 22 18 22 26 31 35 36 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 65 63 59 46 34 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 55 51 38 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT