* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/10/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 69 75 81 84 81 75 69 58 48 41 35 33 36 41 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 69 75 81 84 81 75 69 58 48 41 35 33 36 41 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 63 68 73 79 78 71 63 56 49 43 38 35 34 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 1 5 9 15 19 23 25 26 32 32 31 27 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 0 0 -1 2 0 6 2 -1 0 3 0 6 4 SHEAR DIR 28 11 7 54 127 174 198 222 246 246 248 258 268 257 262 244 240 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.2 25.4 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.5 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 129 125 116 108 106 107 107 109 109 114 117 121 128 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 128 121 117 107 99 96 95 95 96 97 101 104 107 112 115 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 69 71 68 61 49 41 36 34 34 40 47 46 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 26 27 29 31 31 29 27 25 21 17 14 13 13 15 20 850 MB ENV VOR 128 130 129 118 112 131 124 101 71 57 43 31 12 11 6 19 24 200 MB DIV 60 79 64 59 65 128 78 70 7 -6 -1 -19 -21 6 25 45 53 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 4 7 11 14 5 7 0 0 -1 1 3 9 LAND (KM) 1066 1117 1171 1208 1250 1334 1341 1377 1477 1610 1789 1981 2203 2424 2457 2277 2115 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.1 16.8 18.6 20.6 22.4 23.8 24.7 25.3 25.5 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.5 29.9 30.3 31.2 32.4 34.1 36.0 38.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 10 10 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 16 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -3. -5. -12. -19. -22. -24. -24. -20. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 26. 29. 26. 20. 14. 3. -7. -14. -20. -22. -19. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.3 27.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.86 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.61 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.63 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.47 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 35.4% 25.2% 14.0% 6.8% 20.8% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 37.6% 19.2% 8.7% 6.8% 17.3% 15.2% 4.5% Bayesian: 7.4% 32.5% 7.9% 2.7% 1.3% 3.5% 2.5% 0.1% Consensus: 8.6% 35.2% 17.4% 8.5% 5.0% 13.9% 10.6% 1.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 8( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 64 69 75 81 84 81 75 69 58 48 41 35 33 36 41 18HR AGO 55 54 59 64 70 76 79 76 70 64 53 43 36 30 28 31 36 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 62 68 71 68 62 56 45 35 28 22 20 23 28 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 51 57 60 57 51 45 34 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT