* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/10/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 64 69 79 86 89 86 80 69 57 45 35 30 29 31 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 64 69 79 86 89 86 80 69 57 45 35 30 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 66 72 82 84 77 68 58 49 41 34 29 25 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 3 5 10 13 16 27 32 37 40 46 45 45 33 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 1 -1 -6 -1 -1 0 0 4 0 0 -1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 62 59 59 74 77 146 169 195 233 245 245 235 242 251 253 265 268 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.0 25.8 25.3 24.9 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.8 26.3 27.3 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 137 134 130 124 112 108 104 107 107 109 111 116 127 132 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 131 127 123 117 104 99 94 95 95 96 98 102 111 115 116 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -53.1 -53.8 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 73 70 71 66 58 43 36 31 28 26 29 34 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 27 27 29 32 33 33 31 28 24 20 15 13 11 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 133 129 143 144 142 140 142 135 117 85 76 54 36 30 34 10 16 200 MB DIV 60 74 85 92 83 110 129 104 48 0 20 3 -9 -8 2 3 19 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 11 11 4 8 3 8 1 2 -4 LAND (KM) 890 966 1044 1101 1161 1255 1309 1327 1402 1518 1675 1855 2050 2252 2416 2253 2084 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 15.0 15.5 17.1 19.2 21.3 23.2 24.6 25.6 26.2 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.7 26.4 27.2 27.7 28.3 29.0 29.4 29.8 30.5 31.5 32.9 34.6 36.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 10 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 10 8 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 6. 2. -4. -11. -18. -21. -22. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 36. 39. 36. 30. 19. 7. -5. -15. -20. -21. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.8 25.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.77 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.17 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.8 2.6 to -2.7 1.00 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.80 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.51 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.54 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 30.6% 20.7% 9.0% 5.4% 13.7% 25.1% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 39.6% 16.0% 2.6% 2.3% 14.5% 18.0% 5.8% Bayesian: 5.2% 41.4% 11.2% 0.6% 0.0% 14.6% 35.4% 2.3% Consensus: 6.9% 37.2% 16.0% 4.1% 2.6% 14.3% 26.2% 2.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/10/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 7( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 59 64 69 79 86 89 86 80 69 57 45 35 30 29 31 18HR AGO 50 49 54 59 64 74 81 84 81 75 64 52 40 30 25 24 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 56 66 73 76 73 67 56 44 32 22 17 16 18 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 55 62 65 62 56 45 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT