* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092013 09/09/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 45 57 71 82 92 95 93 86 79 70 59 54 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 45 57 71 82 92 95 93 86 79 70 59 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 39 43 55 69 82 83 76 67 59 52 46 40 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 13 9 7 9 3 5 9 13 15 23 25 34 39 37 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 6 1 13 3 7 0 7 SHEAR DIR 49 48 55 47 34 51 109 214 219 210 222 245 234 231 230 241 229 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 27.8 27.1 25.8 25.4 25.6 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 141 142 141 133 125 112 108 109 108 112 114 117 120 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 134 139 139 135 126 117 103 99 98 97 101 103 106 108 117 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 82 81 78 74 75 73 64 50 45 41 39 41 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 19 20 24 27 30 33 34 33 29 26 23 19 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 78 84 101 121 132 140 133 125 142 154 148 112 94 85 70 58 73 200 MB DIV 19 40 57 83 81 109 102 86 109 122 70 -1 -16 -7 9 8 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 15 16 11 8 0 6 2 8 1 LAND (KM) 461 556 655 767 881 1066 1182 1281 1400 1450 1513 1594 1752 1981 2228 2484 2424 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.3 15.3 16.8 18.4 20.1 21.6 22.8 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.4 22.4 23.4 24.5 25.6 27.4 28.5 29.3 30.1 30.9 31.6 32.4 33.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 8 8 8 9 9 7 7 10 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 12 16 15 11 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. -1. -5. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 20. 18. 11. 7. 2. -4. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 27. 41. 52. 62. 65. 63. 56. 49. 40. 29. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 21.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 NINE 09/09/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.60 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.23 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.78 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.90 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 15.9% 10.5% 6.7% 3.4% 8.6% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 22.9% 7.9% 1.4% 1.2% 7.3% 33.2% 40.9% Bayesian: 2.0% 8.3% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 8.0% 12.1% 72.8% Consensus: 3.7% 15.7% 6.9% 2.8% 1.6% 8.0% 19.3% 37.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 NINE 09/09/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 41 45 57 71 82 92 95 93 86 79 70 59 54 55 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 41 53 67 78 88 91 89 82 75 66 55 50 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 47 61 72 82 85 83 76 69 60 49 44 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 36 50 61 71 74 72 65 58 49 38 33 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT