* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP112013 09/02/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 30 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 11 5 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 3 1 1 1 2 8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 223 224 222 224 231 241 191 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.8 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 108 103 100 98 93 91 90 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 57 53 51 45 43 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -7 -5 -8 -1 -4 -3 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -28 -28 -15 0 -3 2 -9 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 2 2 6 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 466 458 453 454 456 444 441 438 436 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.3 116.4 116.5 116.6 116.8 116.9 117.0 117.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -17. -23. -28. -31. -31. -32. -33. -35. -37. -37. -37. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.6 116.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112013 KIKO 09/02/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 KIKO 09/02/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##