* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP112013 09/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 31 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 31 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 39 35 31 28 23 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 13 14 15 11 8 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 3 0 3 -1 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 217 222 211 221 218 219 162 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.4 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 110 107 103 101 98 96 96 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 57 53 50 43 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 11 10 9 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -12 -6 -5 -4 2 -8 2 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -2 -31 -22 -10 1 -8 -15 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 3 2 -1 2 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 468 454 444 441 440 427 423 405 402 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.1 116.2 116.3 116.4 116.5 116.6 116.6 116.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 2 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -17. -22. -27. -33. -36. -36. -38. -39. -41. -41. -41. -41. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.3 116.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112013 KIKO 09/02/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 KIKO 09/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##