* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP102013 08/29/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 44 42 35 28 25 23 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 43 41 34 27 25 22 20 18 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 42 41 39 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 1 1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 20 21 27 40 24 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 27.0 25.1 23.0 21.4 19.9 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 136 115 93 76 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 4 4 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 74 73 71 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 41 29 33 36 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 29 27 20 33 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 -2 -1 0 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 84 26 9 83 116 187 332 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.5 24.6 25.2 25.8 26.5 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.7 111.9 113.0 114.1 116.2 118.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 13 12 11 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 21 CX,CY: -14/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 2. -5. -12. -15. -17. -20. -21. -22. -24. -26. -27. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.3 109.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102013 JULIETTE 08/29/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.43 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.44 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.83 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 16.7% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 6.7% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102013 JULIETTE 08/29/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##