* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP092013 08/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 11 8 9 10 6 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 2 0 3 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 218 237 222 183 217 226 345 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 24.1 23.1 22.3 21.9 21.4 21.3 21.1 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 103 92 83 78 72 70 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 4 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 60 56 52 46 41 34 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 16 14 10 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 62 51 55 47 27 31 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 35 12 13 17 12 2 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 4 3 -1 3 1 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 262 251 268 232 196 173 166 162 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.0 24.7 25.3 25.8 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.6 115.0 115.3 115.5 115.8 116.0 116.2 116.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. -0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -18. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -10. -16. -21. -27. -32. -32. -32. -32. -34. -36. -37. -38. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.2 114.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092013 IVO 08/25/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 IVO 08/25/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##