* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP092013 08/24/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 30 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 30 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 26 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 11 7 13 10 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -1 0 2 0 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 189 210 237 237 195 187 219 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 24.8 23.5 22.6 21.9 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 111 97 87 79 71 68 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 60 57 51 42 36 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 18 16 13 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 76 60 45 50 35 29 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 88 35 6 -5 11 4 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 1 3 5 1 0 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 299 265 269 262 226 187 170 150 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.3 25.0 25.6 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.5 114.9 115.3 115.7 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 3 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -20. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -20. -24. -24. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -24. -31. -39. -39. -40. -40. -42. -43. -44. -44. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.6 114.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##