* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP092013 08/24/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 46 41 33 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 46 41 33 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 42 37 30 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 6 11 8 12 7 7 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 2 4 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 243 201 184 214 218 193 185 154 110 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 26.9 25.7 24.8 23.7 21.7 20.9 20.5 20.4 20.4 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 133 120 111 99 77 68 63 61 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 65 62 61 54 46 37 35 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 19 15 10 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 66 77 74 62 43 33 13 9 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 80 86 109 61 14 23 8 20 19 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 4 10 5 2 1 0 0 3 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 288 243 166 127 157 81 48 94 140 130 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.2 26.5 27.4 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.8 113.1 113.5 113.8 114.6 115.2 115.9 116.3 116.3 116.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 9 8 6 5 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 13 CX,CY: -2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -18. -22. -24. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 6. 1. -7. -18. -25. -30. -34. -34. -35. -37. -39. -39. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.7 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 24.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 8.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##