* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP092013 08/23/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 39 42 44 45 42 33 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 39 42 44 45 42 33 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 41 40 35 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 2 3 5 4 9 7 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 3 0 -2 -5 0 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 109 73 102 172 158 176 168 107 108 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.3 24.6 22.4 21.3 20.7 20.4 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 150 145 137 108 84 72 65 61 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -50.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 69 69 68 62 53 46 39 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 21 21 19 15 9 5 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 65 65 69 71 67 57 36 11 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 123 88 84 100 45 9 27 10 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -8 0 9 0 0 0 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 451 385 327 284 245 121 132 75 41 20 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.6 22.4 24.2 25.6 26.5 27.3 27.8 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.0 112.1 112.3 112.6 113.3 114.0 114.5 114.9 115.2 115.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 9 7 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -5. -14. -21. -26. -25. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 7. -2. -11. -19. -23. -22. -22. -22. -22. -20. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.2 111.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092013 IVO 08/23/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.78 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.73 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.82 -5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.40 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.16 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 24.7% 24.6% 20.5% 0.0% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 19.3% 11.6% 5.6% 1.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 15.0% 12.2% 8.7% 0.4% 7.8% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 IVO 08/23/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##