* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PEWA CP012013 08/17/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 61 66 71 72 69 63 59 57 57 58 59 60 61 60 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 61 66 71 72 69 63 59 57 57 58 59 60 61 60 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 62 71 78 78 73 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 5 3 1 8 17 22 18 20 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -6 -6 0 -1 0 0 0 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 284 337 27 62 261 249 261 241 247 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 148 150 151 150 149 157 154 155 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 60 62 61 61 63 63 63 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 10 11 10 9 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 79 77 77 71 51 50 37 38 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 46 58 62 65 26 30 17 45 -5 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -4 0 4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2081 2148 2220 2299 2384 2570 2768 2852 2599 2352 2126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.2 13.1 14.0 14.8 15.7 16.7 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 175.7 176.8 177.9 179.1 180.3 182.7 185.1 187.6 189.9 192.2 194.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 13 11 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 51 57 59 55 64 67 59 70 56 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -16. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 27. 24. 18. 14. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.4 175.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012013 PEWA 08/17/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 12.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.92 13.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 -8.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 7.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.55 3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.13 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.63 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 5.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.0% 72.1% 53.0% 34.1% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 29.6% 54.3% 56.9% 47.2% 48.3% 23.7% 15.7% 20.5% Bayesian: 4.7% 55.2% 37.1% 25.5% 55.1% 67.3% 72.3% 8.6% Consensus: 21.4% 60.5% 49.0% 35.6% 42.2% 30.3% 29.3% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012013 PEWA 08/17/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##