* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/09/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 79 72 68 60 52 43 36 34 35 34 35 38 41 45 49 V (KT) LAND 90 85 79 72 68 60 52 43 36 34 35 34 35 38 41 45 49 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 82 76 71 64 57 51 46 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 6 4 4 8 9 12 8 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -1 2 0 -1 -5 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 143 173 208 236 238 260 249 237 241 236 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.6 26.2 26.5 26.8 26.4 27.1 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 111 114 117 120 127 130 133 129 137 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 52 51 50 47 47 46 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 1 1 0 5 14 8 13 19 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 25 18 4 -5 -32 -25 -44 -4 -10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 3 3 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1593 1495 1397 1289 1183 957 751 608 569 694 916 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.1 15.5 14.9 14.3 13.8 13.3 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.9 140.9 141.9 143.0 144.2 146.8 149.6 152.6 155.5 158.5 161.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 1 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. -28. -30. -32. -33. -35. -37. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -18. -22. -30. -38. -47. -54. -56. -55. -56. -55. -52. -49. -45. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.1 139.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/09/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 526.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/09/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##