* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/08/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 81 76 72 62 52 41 34 30 27 26 27 29 33 36 39 V (KT) LAND 85 84 81 76 72 62 52 41 34 30 27 26 27 29 33 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 85 84 79 73 67 59 53 47 42 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 1 7 8 5 5 9 10 12 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -1 0 4 -1 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 7 137 148 184 209 242 251 236 247 240 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.6 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.5 26.0 26.4 26.7 26.3 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 108 106 110 114 119 125 129 133 129 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 63 61 52 52 48 49 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -17 -4 0 -2 5 18 6 17 20 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 7 11 21 26 -14 -23 -12 -16 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 4 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1800 1705 1610 1514 1420 1199 961 732 570 514 658 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 14.9 14.3 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.9 138.8 139.7 140.7 141.6 143.9 146.5 149.3 152.3 155.5 158.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 15 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. -28. -30. -31. -33. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -13. -23. -33. -44. -51. -55. -58. -59. -58. -56. -52. -49. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.2 137.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 3.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 7.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##