* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/07/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 80 78 74 67 60 54 51 49 47 45 43 43 45 48 49 V (KT) LAND 80 80 80 78 74 67 60 54 51 49 47 45 43 43 45 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 79 75 71 61 52 47 45 44 43 42 41 41 40 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 5 6 6 1 2 5 1 4 6 7 9 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 -5 -2 0 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 304 258 201 251 290 277 174 206 133 181 259 263 286 278 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.8 24.7 24.8 25.4 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.9 27.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 128 125 121 110 111 117 125 126 126 127 128 134 137 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 7 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 66 67 65 61 61 54 51 52 50 48 47 47 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 16 15 14 13 11 11 10 8 7 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -38 -31 -32 -26 -10 3 6 16 19 17 17 16 11 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 -12 -6 33 40 14 5 9 22 8 13 -16 -24 -28 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 4 4 5 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2303 2203 2104 2003 1902 1698 1505 1308 1099 894 697 542 454 512 704 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.1 16.9 16.6 16.2 15.8 15.4 15.2 14.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.5 134.4 135.2 136.1 137.0 138.9 140.8 142.8 145.0 147.3 149.8 152.3 154.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 7 17 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. -27. -28. -29. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -6. -13. -20. -26. -29. -31. -33. -35. -37. -37. -35. -32. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.4 133.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.15 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.76 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.25 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.52 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.26 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 23.0% 17.9% 13.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 8.1% 3.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 10.4% 7.1% 5.4% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##