* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 81 79 77 70 62 56 50 48 47 45 43 43 43 45 46 V (KT) LAND 80 81 81 79 77 70 62 56 50 48 47 45 43 43 43 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 80 77 74 65 55 49 46 44 42 40 39 39 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A 3 4 3 4 1 5 7 7 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 N/A N/A 1 1 2 2 3 -1 -2 -2 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 1 328 250 N/A N/A 29 311 299 344 138 271 287 265 264 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.2 24.4 25.3 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.7 26.9 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 130 127 124 115 106 116 123 124 124 125 132 134 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 67 N/A N/A 60 54 52 51 48 48 47 47 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 16 17 LOST LOST 14 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -26 -30 -20 N/A N/A 7 10 28 30 23 24 17 19 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 31 -10 -4 N/A N/A 21 14 2 10 2 -4 -8 6 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 3 N/A N/A 1 -2 -1 -1 2 -2 0 2 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2326 2299 2198 2099 2001 1794 1593 1394 1189 975 765 584 448 445 594 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.1 16.8 16.5 16.1 15.8 15.5 15.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.7 133.5 134.4 135.3 136.1 138.0 139.9 141.9 144.0 146.3 148.7 151.2 153.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 8 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 16 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -15. -19. -21. -23. -25. -26. -28. -28. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -3. -10. -18. -24. -30. -32. -33. -35. -37. -37. -37. -35. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.9 132.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.18 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.88 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.72 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.25 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 25.3% 20.5% 16.2% 13.4% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.2% 19.1% 9.2% 8.4% 1.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 15.3% 10.0% 8.2% 4.9% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##