* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 77 76 74 65 59 53 47 43 41 38 38 37 37 39 41 V (KT) LAND 75 77 77 76 74 65 59 53 47 43 41 38 38 37 37 39 41 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 76 74 70 62 54 47 42 38 35 33 32 31 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 2 3 3 1 3 5 6 5 6 11 13 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 0 3 3 2 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 336 319 304 275 242 145 171 260 265 293 264 279 268 277 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.3 25.6 24.5 24.9 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.8 26.4 26.3 26.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 130 128 126 119 107 112 120 122 122 122 129 128 133 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 65 65 62 58 54 51 50 49 47 47 46 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 18 18 18 15 15 13 12 10 9 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -18 -25 -23 -21 -20 -4 6 17 26 24 16 16 13 9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 47 13 -12 7 48 36 15 12 23 -12 -10 -9 -19 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 4 5 7 -1 0 -2 4 0 2 1 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2300 2327 2289 2189 2089 1887 1675 1477 1262 1033 802 580 386 269 387 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.2 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.0 132.8 133.6 134.5 135.3 137.1 139.1 141.0 143.1 145.4 147.8 150.3 152.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 8 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -7. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -17. -19. -18. -18. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -10. -16. -22. -28. -32. -34. -37. -37. -38. -38. -36. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.5 132.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.24 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.87 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.57 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.72 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.25 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.3% 27.0% 22.0% 17.5% 14.2% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.3% 21.6% 10.6% 8.9% 1.9% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.8% 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.5% 17.3% 11.0% 8.8% 5.4% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##