* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 76 76 75 71 64 59 54 51 48 46 44 44 45 45 V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 76 76 75 71 64 59 54 51 48 46 44 44 45 45 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 73 74 74 71 65 57 50 45 43 41 39 38 36 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 1 2 3 2 4 2 1 5 6 4 10 10 19 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -2 0 -1 -3 0 -1 3 0 0 1 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 43 27 3 122 136 217 176 281 345 341 301 342 261 275 263 261 269 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.3 25.4 24.4 24.9 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.8 26.4 26.1 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 129 127 126 117 106 112 120 122 122 122 129 126 132 137 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 76 74 70 70 69 66 65 60 56 52 50 45 42 41 38 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 20 18 18 16 15 13 11 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -5 -1 -7 -8 -16 -5 1 11 18 26 16 17 17 16 14 6 200 MB DIV 87 58 43 54 18 -8 12 -2 13 9 3 -16 -13 -7 -16 -17 7 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -1 0 0 3 5 4 -3 1 -4 3 1 1 2 5 0 LAND (KM) 2263 2280 2300 2325 2261 2074 1875 1681 1472 1265 1036 802 567 374 214 334 453 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.4 17.0 16.8 16.7 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.5 131.4 132.2 133.0 133.8 135.4 137.2 139.0 141.0 143.1 145.4 147.8 150.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 6 10 14 10 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 8 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 11. 10. 6. -1. -6. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.5 130.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.84 7.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.47 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.72 -5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.9% 33.4% 29.5% 23.8% 15.8% 19.2% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 9.8% 33.2% 15.8% 13.2% 5.4% 4.9% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.8% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.1% 23.5% 15.6% 12.5% 7.2% 8.1% 4.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##