* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 44 49 53 57 60 63 65 66 66 65 66 66 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 44 49 53 57 60 63 65 66 66 65 66 66 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 42 45 48 51 54 58 61 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 5 7 4 6 6 7 5 5 3 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -3 -1 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 166 134 118 131 125 54 82 61 89 70 99 69 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.8 26.9 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 127 127 127 125 126 125 124 124 131 132 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 54 54 57 54 55 53 53 54 52 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 18 15 13 11 10 8 -8 -17 -16 -4 -4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 25 30 33 13 34 21 27 34 8 2 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1663 1598 1534 1472 1411 1256 1095 923 774 666 567 502 499 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.3 142.0 142.7 143.3 144.8 146.4 148.1 149.7 151.3 153.0 154.7 156.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 13 14 10 2 1 1 0 0 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 17. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. 30. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 140.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.79 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.51 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.23 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 23.9% 18.6% 14.0% 11.0% 17.0% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 29.0% 18.8% 12.4% 5.1% 7.0% 1.6% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 18.1% 12.5% 8.8% 5.4% 8.0% 5.3% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##