* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/06/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 42 46 50 53 58 59 61 61 61 62 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 42 46 50 53 58 59 61 61 61 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 35 37 39 42 44 47 50 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 6 8 5 9 4 9 N/A 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 N/A 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 148 149 135 130 115 93 92 100 69 N/A 45 51 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.0 26.5 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.7 26.8 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 128 129 132 133 128 123 123 125 130 132 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 N/A -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 N/A 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 55 56 58 56 55 53 N/A 51 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 LOST 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 19 20 10 15 0 -7 -26 N/A -9 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 22 16 1 17 20 34 39 39 N/A 21 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 N/A -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1736 1675 1615 1559 1503 1377 1215 1049 898 757 639 540 516 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.3 13.1 13.0 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.8 140.5 141.2 141.9 142.5 143.8 145.4 147.1 148.7 150.3 152.1 154.1 156.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 13 13 15 17 11 3 0 0 1 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 28. 29. 31. 31. 31. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 139.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.67 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.28 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.22 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 18.6% 14.2% 10.5% 0.0% 13.9% 12.1% 11.1% Logistic: 1.5% 5.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 8.1% 5.5% 3.9% 0.1% 5.0% 4.2% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##