* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 58 62 69 70 72 70 65 63 58 56 51 48 46 44 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 58 62 69 70 72 70 65 63 58 56 51 48 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 53 56 58 58 55 50 46 42 39 36 33 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 15 9 9 4 7 4 7 7 10 5 5 7 15 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -1 2 3 4 5 4 4 7 4 3 2 5 SHEAR DIR 53 32 24 41 45 24 349 84 24 49 76 93 305 280 269 278 274 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.0 26.9 26.4 24.7 25.4 25.5 25.0 25.2 25.6 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 138 136 137 139 133 133 127 110 117 119 113 116 120 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 -53.0 -52.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 77 76 74 72 71 68 65 60 51 46 43 43 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 20 19 20 19 20 18 16 15 12 12 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 6 5 1 -1 -7 -8 -11 0 1 -2 13 7 12 5 14 18 26 200 MB DIV 106 106 127 108 80 72 42 48 30 6 11 13 3 -2 -4 2 -15 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -7 -5 -4 0 3 6 3 1 2 3 6 7 6 5 6 LAND (KM) 2182 2212 2245 2275 2301 2355 2242 2038 1827 1629 1404 1173 929 700 452 220 73 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.4 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.6 129.3 130.1 130.9 132.5 134.2 136.0 137.9 139.7 141.8 144.0 146.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 9 8 10 17 8 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 2. -1. -2. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 24. 25. 27. 25. 20. 18. 13. 11. 6. 3. 1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.9 127.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.61 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.36 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.77 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.82 -5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.66 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 28.1% 23.0% 18.2% 12.6% 19.8% 24.7% 13.2% Logistic: 3.8% 24.4% 8.9% 5.7% 4.2% 6.2% 7.4% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 18.3% 11.1% 8.1% 5.7% 8.9% 10.9% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##