* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 39 44 48 51 53 53 53 53 54 54 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 39 44 48 51 53 53 53 53 54 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 22 21 21 21 23 25 27 29 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 13 13 9 9 9 10 12 12 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -4 -5 -6 -6 -6 -3 -1 0 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 141 148 141 137 144 132 116 81 95 72 74 67 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.9 27.2 26.7 26.2 26.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 132 130 132 135 130 125 130 139 137 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 60 59 57 56 55 56 54 54 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 12 15 18 17 14 10 6 -6 -15 -16 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 23 32 43 32 29 50 40 44 38 44 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1949 1884 1820 1753 1688 1552 1402 1253 1099 975 863 770 707 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 13.5 13.3 13.0 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.4 138.2 138.9 139.7 140.5 142.1 143.8 145.5 147.3 149.0 150.8 152.5 154.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 8 11 12 16 12 4 2 7 14 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 28. 28. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 28. 28. 29. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 137.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.72 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.40 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 12.8% 4.3% 2.5% 1.9% 2.5% 0.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 9.6% 6.0% 0.8% 0.6% 4.7% 4.1% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##