* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082013 08/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 52 61 67 69 69 67 64 60 55 53 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 52 61 67 69 69 67 64 60 55 53 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 43 45 44 42 39 35 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 8 10 8 5 4 3 6 5 10 10 13 10 9 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 -5 -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 337 346 21 32 41 69 18 299 304 283 282 281 315 316 281 270 280 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.3 26.6 25.3 24.6 25.4 25.2 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 140 141 142 139 136 136 135 126 129 116 109 117 116 114 118 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 74 75 75 74 75 75 76 72 73 71 71 69 67 59 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 8 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR -12 4 10 14 31 47 43 43 36 31 20 24 19 29 17 22 9 200 MB DIV 39 75 84 68 53 86 101 119 96 97 54 59 25 26 17 11 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 -2 -2 4 5 13 2 6 8 7 LAND (KM) 1741 1802 1864 1925 1987 2115 2223 2307 2375 2168 1956 1762 1553 1339 1098 839 595 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.4 15.4 16.3 17.0 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.0 124.8 125.6 126.4 128.0 129.6 131.3 133.1 134.8 136.6 138.3 140.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 14 15 11 7 10 9 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 28. 27. 27. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. -0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 27. 36. 42. 44. 44. 42. 39. 35. 30. 28. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 123.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 EIGHT 08/03/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.82 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.64 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.85 -5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.48 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.82 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.5% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 29.6% 15.8% 8.9% 2.8% 16.1% 27.4% 21.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 0.2% Consensus: 2.2% 17.2% 11.8% 3.0% 1.0% 11.2% 15.1% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 EIGHT 08/03/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##