* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/03/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 50 49 48 50 52 55 59 61 64 62 61 59 59 57 V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 50 49 48 50 52 55 59 61 64 62 61 59 59 57 V (KT) LGEM 55 51 48 46 44 41 39 39 41 43 46 49 52 55 56 57 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A TROP TROP N/A TROP N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 17 N/A 7 4 N/A 12 N/A 10 12 13 8 8 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 N/A 0 4 N/A -2 N/A 0 -2 1 5 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 261 280 286 299 N/A 338 140 N/A 126 N/A 115 134 123 108 103 112 94 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.6 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 126 129 129 129 131 126 125 129 125 126 129 127 129 130 130 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 N/A -53.2 -52.6 N/A -52.3 N/A -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A 0.1 0.1 N/A 0.2 N/A 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 N/A 3 3 N/A 4 N/A 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 65 69 71 N/A 71 73 N/A 73 N/A 65 63 59 54 50 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 15 LOST 15 15 LOST 16 LOST 18 20 20 20 20 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -12 -6 0 N/A 3 10 N/A 44 N/A 79 76 66 69 55 64 61 200 MB DIV 49 61 40 56 N/A 53 55 N/A 62 N/A 65 79 67 58 9 -8 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 N/A 2 3 N/A 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 2129 2186 2245 2304 2365 2224 2077 1931 1793 1654 1503 1333 1178 1032 921 849 779 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.0 130.8 131.5 132.3 133.0 134.5 136.0 137.5 139.0 140.5 142.1 143.9 145.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 5 7 6 4 5 1 2 13 9 3 3 3 5 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -5. -3. 0. 4. 7. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.7 130.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.40 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.42 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.5 -30.0 to 145.0 0.47 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.26 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 19.9% 18.3% 13.9% 9.6% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 7.4% 6.4% 4.7% 3.2% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##