* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/02/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 52 50 49 48 50 50 56 56 58 59 61 60 58 57 56 V (KT) LAND 60 56 52 50 49 48 50 50 56 56 58 59 61 60 58 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 60 55 50 47 45 41 38 37 38 38 38 38 39 41 43 45 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 5 7 13 4 4 7 5 1 6 4 9 5 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 4 4 -1 1 5 4 8 8 4 3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 260 273 287 278 282 326 66 233 110 178 248 132 110 141 117 135 139 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.1 26.4 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 125 126 130 130 130 130 124 127 124 126 127 128 129 130 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 65 66 70 70 69 72 74 72 69 65 65 61 59 58 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 14 15 15 15 17 16 18 17 17 18 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -8 -7 -1 -3 -3 10 12 27 38 57 66 60 60 57 57 52 200 MB DIV 21 70 52 28 50 67 81 68 70 59 45 72 67 63 64 29 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 2063 2118 2175 2233 2292 2340 2186 2032 1863 1705 1556 1427 1274 1124 975 817 691 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.1 13.9 13.6 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.0 129.8 130.5 131.2 131.9 133.4 134.9 136.4 138.1 139.8 141.4 142.9 144.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 4 8 6 4 4 0 7 7 7 2 3 4 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 2. 2. 4. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -10. -10. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 129.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.36 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.63 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.42 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.30 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 19.1% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.4% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##